• A probabilistic spatial modelling approach is presented for estimating household waste generation with limited data. • The approach is applied for the first time in the Sydney metropolitan area, Australia. • We estimate annual quantities of household waste generation for over 1.2 million property lots in the Sydney area. • This novel approach has a range of applications in determining efficient collection services, for locating waste processing facilities, and informing data driven urban resource recovery strategies where data is limited. Given recent circular economy policy and waste minimisation targets, there is a significant opportunity to fundamentally change the way waste is managed in Australia, and re-focus waste management to promote resource recovery and efficiency. Detailed data on household waste generation can assist decision makers in targeting waste minimisation incentives, improving resource recovery and circularity, identifying specific technology and infrastructure gaps and informing future development. Unfortunately, high-resolution spatial estimates of waste generation at the property lot scale is typically unavailable. This study presents a novel spatial model developed to estimate waste generation data at the property lot level. Utilising census data at multiple spatial scales and council waste generation data, we apply our model to estimate quantities of residual waste, dry recyclables and garden waste generated for more than 1,200,000 property lots in the Sydney metropolitan area, Australia. Results show the spatial distribution of estimated household waste generation, achieving a high degree of accuracy when compared to validation data. To illustrate the application of our results in the context of identifying ideal areas for waste processing facilities, we analyse the spatial distribution of available garden waste arising from property lots. An area of intense garden waste generation was identified, indicating a supply area of approximately 13km 2 in northern Sydney that can support a facility of approximately 20,000t throughput a year. Our analytical approach presented is novel, and has practical application for locating waste processing facilities; analysing efficient kerbside waste collection services; and in informing data driven urban waste management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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