Has the impact of heat waves on mortality changed in France since the European heat wave of summer 2003? A study of the 2006 heat wave.

Tytuł:: Has the impact of heat waves on mortality changed in France since the European heat wave of summer 2003? A study of the 2006 heat wave.
Autorzy:: Fouillet A; INSERM, U754, IFR69, Université Paris Sud 11, Epidémiologie Environnementale des Cancers, Villejuif, France.
Rey G
Wagner V
Laaidi K
Empereur-Bissonnet P
Le Tertre A
Frayssinet P
Bessemoulin P
Laurent F
De Crouy-Chanel P
Jougla E
Hémon D
Źródło:: International journal of epidemiology [Int J Epidemiol] 2008 Apr; Vol. 37 (2), pp. 309-17. Date of Electronic Publication: 2008 Jan 13.
Typ publikacji:: Evaluation Study; Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Język:: English
Imprint Name(s):: Original Publication: [London] Oxford University Press.
MeSH Terms:: Models, Statistical*
Seasons*
Hot Temperature/*adverse effects
Mortality/*trends
Aged ; Female ; France/epidemiology ; Heat Stress Disorders/prevention & control ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Models, Biological ; Temperature
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Contributed Indexing:: Indexing Agency: NLM Local ID #: HALMS207583.
Entry Date(s):: Date Created: 20080116 Date Completed: 20080616 Latest Revision: 20191210
Update Code:: 20240104
PubMed Central ID:: PMC2652641
DOI:: 10.1093/ije/dym253
PMID:: 18194962
: Czasopismo naukowe

Background: In July 2006, a lasting and severe heat wave occurred in Western Europe. Since the 2003 heat wave, several preventive measures and an alert system aiming at reducing the risks related to high temperatures have been set up in France by the health authorities and institutions. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of those measures, the observed excess mortality during the 2006 heat wave was compared to the expected excess mortality.
Methods: A Poisson regression model relating the daily fluctuations in summer temperature and mortality in France from 1975 to 2003 was used to estimate the daily expected number of deaths over the period 2004-2006 as a function of the observed temperatures.
Results: During the 2006 heat wave (from 11 to 28 July), about 2065 excess deaths occurred in France. Considering the observed temperatures and with the hypothesis that heat-related mortality had not changed since 2003, 6452 excess deaths were predicted for the period. The observed mortality during the 2006 heat wave was thus markedly less than the expected mortality (approximately 4400 less deaths).
Conclusions: The excess mortality during the 2006 heat wave, which was markedly lower than that predicted by the model, may be interpreted as a decrease in the population's vulnerability to heat, together with, since 2003, increased awareness of the risk related to extreme temperatures, preventive measures and the set-up of the warning system.

Comment in: Int J Epidemiol. 2008 Apr;37(2):317-8. (PMID: 18326511)
Comment in: Int J Epidemiol. 2008 Apr;37(2):318-20. (PMID: 18381399)

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