The potential impact of a 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages on obesity in South African adults: a mathematical model.

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Abstrakt

Tytuł:: The potential impact of a 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages on obesity in South African adults: a mathematical model.
Autorzy:: Manyema M; School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; PRICELESS-SA, MRC/Wits Rural Public, Health and Health Transitions Research Unit, School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Veerman LJ; School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
Chola L; School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; PRICELESS-SA, MRC/Wits Rural Public, Health and Health Transitions Research Unit, School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Tugendhaft A; School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; PRICELESS-SA, MRC/Wits Rural Public, Health and Health Transitions Research Unit, School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Sartorius B; School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; Discipline of Public Health Medicine, School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa.
Labadarios D; Population Health, Health Systems and Innovation (PHHSI), Human Sciences Research Council, Capetown, South Africa.
Hofman KJ; School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; PRICELESS-SA, MRC/Wits Rural Public, Health and Health Transitions Research Unit, School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.
Źródło:: PloS one [PLoS One] 2014 Aug 19; Vol. 9 (8), pp. e105287. Date of Electronic Publication: 2014 Aug 19 (Print Publication: 2014).
Typ publikacji:: Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Język:: English
Imprint Name(s):: Original Publication: San Francisco, CA : Public Library of Science
MeSH Terms:: Taxes*
Beverages/*economics
Dietary Sucrose/*economics
Obesity/*prevention & control
Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Body Mass Index ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Models, Economic ; NADP Transhydrogenases ; South Africa ; Young Adult
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Substance Nomenclature:: 0 (Dietary Sucrose)
EC 1.6.1.- (NADP Transhydrogenases)
Entry Date(s):: Date Created: 20140820 Date Completed: 20150526 Latest Revision: 20220410
Update Code:: 20240104
PubMed Central ID:: PMC4138175
DOI:: 10.1371/journal.pone.0105287
PMID:: 25136987
: Czasopismo naukowe

Pełny tekst

Background/objectives: The prevalence of obesity in South Africa has risen sharply, as has the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). Research shows that consumption of SSBs leads to weight gain in both adults and children, and reducing SSBs will significantly impact the prevalence of obesity and its related diseases. We estimated the effect of a 20% tax on SSBs on the prevalence of and obesity among adults in South Africa.
Methods: A mathematical simulation model was constructed to estimate the effect of a 20% SSB tax on the prevalence of obesity. We used consumption data from the 2012 SA National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and a previous meta-analysis of studies on own- and cross-price elasticities of SSBs to estimate the shift in daily energy consumption expected of increased prices of SSBs, and energy balance equations to estimate shifts in body mass index. The population distribution of BMI by age and sex was modelled by fitting measured data from the SA National Income Dynamics Survey 2012 to the lognormal distribution and shifting the mean values. Uncertainty was assessed with Monte Carlo simulations.
Results: A 20% tax is predicted to reduce energy intake by about 36 kJ per day (95% CI: 9-68 kJ). Obesity is projected to reduce by 3.8% (95% CI: 0.6%-7.1%) in men and 2.4% (95% CI: 0.4%-4.4%) in women. The number of obese adults would decrease by over 220 000 (95% CI: 24 197-411 759).
Conclusions: Taxing SSBs could impact the burden of obesity in South Africa particularly in young adults, as one component of a multi-faceted effort to prevent obesity.

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