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Tytuł:
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Spatiotemporal Fluctuations and Triggers of Ebola Virus Spillover.
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Autorzy:
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Schmidt JP
Park AW
Kramer AM
Han BA
Alexander LW
Drake JM
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Źródło:
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Emerging infectious diseases [Emerg Infect Dis] 2017 Mar; Vol. 23 (3), pp. 415-422.
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Typ publikacji:
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Journal Article; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
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Język:
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English
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Imprint Name(s):
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Original Publication: Atlanta, GA : National Center for Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), [1995-
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MeSH Terms:
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Models, Biological*
Ebolavirus/*physiology
Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/*veterinary
Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/*virology
Hominidae/*virology
Africa South of the Sahara/epidemiology ; Animals ; Ape Diseases/epidemiology ; Ape Diseases/virology ; Disease Outbreaks ; Disease Reservoirs ; Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology ; Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/transmission ; Humans ; Models, Statistical ; Seasons ; Time Factors ; Zoonoses
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References:
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Grant Information:
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U01 GM110744 United States GM NIGMS NIH HHS
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Contributed Indexing:
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Keywords: Ebola virus; disease outbreaks; early warning system; infectious diseases; modeling; seasonality; spatiotemporal forecasting; spillovers; viruses
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Entry Date(s):
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Date Created: 20170222 Date Completed: 20180209 Latest Revision: 20220331
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Update Code:
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20240105
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PubMed Central ID:
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PMC5382727
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DOI:
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10.3201/eid2303.160101
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PMID:
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28221131
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Because the natural reservoir of Ebola virus remains unclear and disease outbreaks in humans have occurred only sporadically over a large region, forecasting when and where Ebola spillovers are most likely to occur constitutes a continuing and urgent public health challenge. We developed a statistical modeling approach that associates 37 human or great ape Ebola spillovers since 1982 with spatiotemporally dynamic covariates including vegetative cover, human population size, and absolute and relative rainfall over 3 decades across sub-Saharan Africa. Our model (area under the curve 0.80 on test data) shows that spillover intensity is highest during transitions between wet and dry seasons; overall, high seasonal intensity occurs over much of tropical Africa; and spillover intensity is greatest at high (>1,000/km 2 ) and very low (<100/km 2 ) human population densities compared with intermediate levels. These results suggest strong seasonality in Ebola spillover from wild reservoirs and indicate particular times and regions for targeted surveillance.