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Tytuł:
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The 2016 southeastern US drought: an extreme departure from centennial wetting and cooling.
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Autorzy:
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Williams AP; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Palisades, NY 10964, USA.
Cook BI; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies; New York, NY 10025, USA.
Smerdon JE; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Palisades, NY 10964, USA.
Bishop DA; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Palisades, NY 10964, USA.; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University; New York, NY 10025, USA.
Seager R; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Palisades, NY 10964, USA.
Mankin JS; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Palisades, NY 10964, USA.; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies; New York, NY 10025, USA.; Department of Geography, Dartmouth College; Hanover, NH 03755, USA.
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Źródło:
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Journal of geophysical research. Atmospheres : JGR [J Geophys Res Atmos] 2017 Oct 27; Vol. 122 (20), pp. 10888-10905. Date of Electronic Publication: 2017 Oct 04.
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Typ publikacji:
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Journal Article
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Język:
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English
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Imprint Name(s):
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Original Publication: Washington, D.C. : American Geophysical Union, 1984-
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References:
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Grant Information:
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United States Goddard Space Flight Center NASA; N-999999 United States Intramural NASA
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Entry Date(s):
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Date Created: 20180522 Latest Revision: 20240314
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Update Code:
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20240314
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PubMed Central ID:
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PMC5956230
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DOI:
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10.1002/2017JD027523
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PMID:
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29780677
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The fall 2016 drought in the southeastern United States (SE US) appeared exceptional based on its widespread impacts, but the current monitoring framework that only extends from 1979-present does not readily facilitate evaluation of soil-moisture anomalies in a centennial context. A new method to extend monthly gridded soil-moisture estimates back to 1895 is developed, indicating that since 1895, October-November 2016 soil moisture (0-200 cm) in the SE US was likely the second lowest on record, behind 1954. This severe drought developed rapidly and was brought on by low September-November precipitation and record-high September-November daily maximum temperatures (Tmax). Record Tmax drove record-high atmospheric moisture demand, accounting for 28% of the October-November 2016 soil-moisture anomaly. Drought and heat in fall 2016 contrasted with 20 th -century wetting and cooling in the region, but resembled conditions more common from 1895-1956. Dynamically, the exceptional drying in fall 2016 was driven by anomalous ridging over the central United States that reduced south-southwesterly moisture transports into the SE US by approximately 75%. These circulation anomalies were likely promoted by a moderate La Niña and warmth in the tropical Atlantic, but these processes accounted for very little of the SE US drying in fall 2016, implying a large role for internal atmospheric variability. The extended analysis back to 1895 indicates that SE US droughts as strong as the 2016 event are more likely than indicated from a shorter 60-year perspective, and continued multi-decadal swings in precipitation may combine with future warming to further enhance the likelihood of such events.