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Tytuł:
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Oceanic and radiative forcing of medieval megadroughts in the American Southwest.
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Autorzy:
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Steiger NJ; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA.
Smerdon JE; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA.
Cook BI; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA.
Seager R; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA.
Williams AP; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA.
Cook ER; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA.
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Źródło:
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Science advances [Sci Adv] 2019 Jul 24; Vol. 5 (7), pp. eaax0087. Date of Electronic Publication: 2019 Jul 24 (Print Publication: 2019).
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Typ publikacji:
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Journal Article
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Język:
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English
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Imprint Name(s):
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Original Publication: Washington, DC : American Association for the Advancement of Science, [2015]-
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References:
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Nature. 2015 Jun 25;522(7557):465-9. (PMID: 26108856)
Nature. 2015 Jul 30;523(7562):543-9. (PMID: 26153860)
Sci Adv. 2015 Feb 12;1(1):e1400082. (PMID: 26601131)
Sci Adv. 2016 Oct 05;2(10):e1600873. (PMID: 27713927)
Nat Commun. 2017 May 30;8:15386. (PMID: 28555638)
Geophys Res Lett. 2016 Sep 28;43(18):9886-9894. (PMID: 29780186)
Sci Data. 2018 May 22;5:180086. (PMID: 29786698)
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Entry Date(s):
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Date Created: 20190730 Latest Revision: 20200225
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Update Code:
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20240105
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PubMed Central ID:
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PMC6656535
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DOI:
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10.1126/sciadv.aax0087
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PMID:
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31355339
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Multidecadal "megadroughts" were a notable feature of the climate of the American Southwest over the Common era, yet we still lack a comprehensive theory for what caused these megadroughts and why they curiously only occurred before about 1600 CE. Here, we use the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product, in conjunction with radiative forcing estimates, to demonstrate that megadroughts in the American Southwest were driven by unusually frequent and cold central tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) excursions in conjunction with anomalously warm Atlantic SSTs and a locally positive radiative forcing. This assessment of past megadroughts provides the first comprehensive theory for the causes of megadroughts and their clustering particularly during the Medieval era. This work also provides the first paleoclimatic support for the prediction that the risk of American Southwest megadroughts will markedly increase with global warming.
