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Tytuł:
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Time-Series Study of Associations between Rates of People Affected by Disasters and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Cycle.
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Autorzy:
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Lam HCY; Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China. .
Haines A; Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1H 9SH, UK.; Centre for Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1H 9SH, UK.
McGregor G; Department of Geography, Durham University, Durham DH1 3LE, UK.
Chan EYY; Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
Hajat S; Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1H 9SH, UK. .; Centre for Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1H 9SH, UK. .
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Źródło:
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International journal of environmental research and public health [Int J Environ Res Public Health] 2019 Aug 28; Vol. 16 (17). Date of Electronic Publication: 2019 Aug 28.
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Typ publikacji:
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Journal Article
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Język:
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English
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Imprint Name(s):
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Original Publication: Basel : MDPI, c2004-
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MeSH Terms:
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Disasters*
El Nino-Southern Oscillation*
Humans
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References:
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Contributed Indexing:
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Keywords: El Niño; El Niño Southern Oscillation; La Niña; Oceanic Niño Index (ONI); natural disasters; number of people affected
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Entry Date(s):
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Date Created: 20190831 Date Completed: 20200122 Latest Revision: 20200309
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Update Code:
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20240104
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PubMed Central ID:
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PMC6747095
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DOI:
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10.3390/ijerph16173146
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PMID:
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31466421
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The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of climatic variability that can have far reaching consequences for public health globally. We explored whether global, regional and country-level rates of people affected by natural disasters (PAD) are linked to ENSO. Annual numbers of PAD between 1964-2017 recorded on the EM-DAT disaster database were combined with UN population data to create PAD rates. Time-series regression was used to assess de-trended associations between PAD and 2 ENSO indices: Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) and multivariate El Niño Index (MEI). Over 95% of PAD were caused by floods, droughts or storms, with over 75% of people affected by these three disasters residing in Asia. Globally, drought-related PAD rate increased sharply in El Niño years (versus neutral years). Flood events were the disaster type most strongly associated with El Niño regionally: in South Asia, flood-related PAD increased by 40.5% (95% CI 19.3% to 65.6%) for each boundary point increase in ONI ( p = 0.002). India was found to be the country with the largest increase in flood-related PAD rates following an El Niño event, with the Philippines experiencing the largest increase following La Niña. Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI)-analyses showed consistent results. These findings can be used to inform disaster preparedness strategies.
