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Tytuł pozycji:

Econometric ARIMA methodology to elucidate the evolution of trends in nosocomial antimicrobial resistance rates in the European Union.

Tytuł:
Econometric ARIMA methodology to elucidate the evolution of trends in nosocomial antimicrobial resistance rates in the European Union.
Autorzy:
Ortega-Huedo R; Continuous Training Department, Centre for Legal Studies, Ministry of Justice, Madrid, Spain; Animal Health Department, Faculty of Veterinary Science, Complutense University, Madrid, Spain. Electronic address: .
Cuesta M; Faculty of Mathematics, Complutense University, Madrid, Spain.
Hoefer A; Animal Health Department, Faculty of Veterinary Science, Complutense University, Madrid, Spain; Ross University School of Veterinary Medicine, Saint Kitts and Nevis.
Gonzalez-Zorn B; Animal Health Department, Faculty of Veterinary Science, Complutense University, Madrid, Spain; VISAVET Health Surveillance Centre, Complutense University, Madrid, Spain.
Źródło:
International journal of antimicrobial agents [Int J Antimicrob Agents] 2020 Jan; Vol. 55 (1), pp. 105800. Date of Electronic Publication: 2019 Sep 12.
Typ publikacji:
Journal Article
Język:
English
Imprint Name(s):
Original Publication: Amsterdam : Elsevier Science Publishers, c1991-
MeSH Terms:
Drug Resistance, Bacterial*
Escherichia coli/*drug effects
Escherichia coli Infections/*microbiology
Klebsiella Infections/*microbiology
Klebsiella pneumoniae/*drug effects
Pseudomonas Infections/*microbiology
Pseudomonas aeruginosa/*drug effects
Anti-Bacterial Agents/pharmacology ; Cephalosporin Resistance ; Cephalosporins/pharmacology ; Cross Infection ; Escherichia coli Infections/drug therapy ; Escherichia coli Infections/epidemiology ; Europe/epidemiology ; European Union ; Fluoroquinolones/pharmacology ; Humans ; Klebsiella Infections/drug therapy ; Klebsiella Infections/epidemiology ; Models, Econometric ; Models, Theoretical ; Pseudomonas Infections/drug therapy ; Pseudomonas Infections/epidemiology
Contributed Indexing:
Keywords: Antimicrobial resistance; EARS-Net; European Union; Legislation; Nosocomial agents; Series analysis
Substance Nomenclature:
0 (Anti-Bacterial Agents)
0 (Cephalosporins)
0 (Fluoroquinolones)
Entry Date(s):
Date Created: 20190916 Date Completed: 20201007 Latest Revision: 20201007
Update Code:
20240105
DOI:
10.1016/j.ijantimicag.2019.09.004
PMID:
31521811
Czasopismo naukowe
Background: Infections with bacteria harbouring resistance to cephalosporins or fluoroquinolones (FQ) constitute a serious hazard to human health.
Objectives: To establish a methodology based on econometric analysis and the largest European Union (EU) resistance database (EARS-Net), to model nosocomial antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in the EU and to detect tendency changes, steps or peaks. The contribution of legislation based on third-generation cephalosporin (3GC) and FQ class referrals to resistance rate patterns is evaluated.
Methods: Resistance to 3GC and FQ was examined in nosocomial Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae and Pseudomonas aeruginosa in at least 25 out of 30 EU countries (> 94% population coverage), weighted by their mean annual population, between 2006 and 2016. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model analysis, inspired by Box-Jenkins methodology, was prepared to adjust series to a mathematical model to detect hypothetical changes in the general behaviour. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to use ARIMA with interventions to model overall nosocomial AMR data compiled in EARS-Net.
Results and Conclusions: Econometric ARIMA models statistically prove the occurence of slowdowns and reversions in the increasing trend of AMR prevalence in nosocomial E. coli and K. pneumoniae to 3GC and FQ, as well as resistance of P. aeruginosa to 3GC. The resistance of P. aeruginosa to FQ exhibited a descending slope. The presented decreasing trends constitute noteworthy milestones in tackling AMR in Europe.
(Copyright © 2019 Elsevier B.V. and International Society of Chemotherapy. All rights reserved.)

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