Objective: To evaluate the prognostic value of arterial lactate (Lac) combined with central venous-to-arterial carbon dioxide difference to arterial-to-central venous oxygen content difference ratio (Pcv-aCO 2 /Ca-cvO 2 ) in patients with septic shock following early fluid resuscitation.
Methods: A total of 97 patients with septic shock admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) of Lanzhou University Second Hospital from January 2017 to December 2019 were enrolled. The Pcv-aCO 2 /Ca-cvO 2 ratio was calculated from blood gas analysis of radial artery and superior vena cava which was performed before resuscitation and at 6 hours of resuscitation at the same time. The patients were divided into death group and survival group according to the 28-day prognosis. The baseline data, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score, sequential organ failure score (SOFA), clinical therapy, lactate clearance rate (LCR) at 6 hours, the length of ICU stay, hemodynamics and oxygen metabolism parameters before and after resuscitation were compared between the two groups. Risk factors were analyzed by multivariate Cox regression for 28-day mortality of patients with septic shock. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted to assess the prognostic values of these factors for 28-day mortality.
Results: (1) Compared with the survival group, the patients in the death group showed significantly higher levels of APACHE II score (23.96±4.31 vs. 17.70±3.92) and SOFA score (12.74±2.80 vs. 9.23±2.43, both P < 0.01), significantly higher proportions of mechanical ventilation [85.2% (23/27) vs. 50.0% (35/70)] and continuous renal replacement therapy [CRRT; 51.9% (14/27) vs. 25.7% (18/70), both P < 0.05], a significantly more fluid replacement at 6 hours (L: 2.92±0.24 vs. 2.63±0.25, P < 0.01), a significantly lower level of LCR at 6 hours [(11.61±7.76)% vs. (27.67±13.71)%, P < 0.01], and a shorter length of ICU stay (days: 6.37±2.70 vs. 7.67±2.31, P < 0.05). (2) Compared with the survival group, the patients before resuscitation in the death group showed a significantly lower level of mean arterial pressure [MAP (mmHg, 1 mmHg = 0.133 kPa): 52.63±4.35 vs. 55.74±3.01, P < 0.01], significantly higher levels of Lac and Pcv-aCO 2 /Ca-cvO 2 ratio [Lac (mmol/L): 7.13±1.75 vs. 5.22±1.36, Pcv-aCO 2 /Ca-cvO 2 ratio: 1.67±0.29 vs. 1.48±0.22, both P < 0.01]; and the patients at 6 hours of resuscitation in the death group showed a significantly lower level of MAP (mmHg: 62.59±4.80 vs. 66.71±3.91, P < 0.01), significantly higher levels of central venous pressure (CVP), Lac, Pcv-aCO 2 and Pcv-aCO 2 /Ca-cvO 2 ratio [CVP (mmHg): 10.74±1.40 vs. 8.80±0.75, Lac (mmol/L): 6.36±1.86 vs. 3.90±1.95, Pcv-aCO 2 (mmHg): 7.59±2.02 vs. 4.34±1.37, Pcv-aCO 2 /Ca-cvO 2 ratio: 1.87±0.51 vs. 1.03±0.27, all P < 0.01]. (3) Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the independent risk factors for 28-day mortality in patients with septic shock were Lac and Pcv-aCO 2 /Ca-cvO 2 ratio whether before or at 6 hours of resuscitation [Lac before resuscitation: relative risk (RR) = 1.434, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.070-1.922, P = 0.016; Lac at 6 hours of resuscitation: RR = 1.564, 95%CI was 1.202-2.035, P = 0.001; Pcv-aCO 2 /Ca-cvO 2 ratio before resuscitation: RR = 2.828, 95%CI was 1.108-4.207, P = 0.038; Pcv-aCO 2 /Ca-cvO 2 ratio at 6 hours of resuscitation: RR = 4.386, 95%CI was 2.842-5.730, P = 0.000]. (4) ROC curve analysis showed that Lac and Pcv-aCO 2 /Ca-cvO 2 ratio at 6 hours of resuscitation had predictive value for the prognosis of patients with septic shock, the area under ROC curve (AUC) was 0.849 (95%CI was 0.762-0.914) and 0.905 (95%CI was 0.828-0.955), respectively. However, the predictive value of Lac combined with Pcv-aCO 2 /Ca-cvO 2 ratio in patients with septic shock was significantly higher than Lac [AUC (95%CI): 0.976 (0.923-0.996) vs. 0.849 (0.762-0.914), Z = 3.354, P = 0.001], the sensitivity was 97.14%, and the specificity was 88.89%.
Conclusions: Lac and Pcv-aCO 2 /Ca-cvO 2 ratio are independent risk factors for predicting 28-day mortality in patients with septic shock. Lac combined with Pcv-aCO 2 /Ca-cvO 2 ratio can assess the prognosis of patients with septic shock more accurately.
