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Tytuł:
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Fertilizer profitability for smallholder maize farmers in Tanzania: A spatially-explicit ex ante analysis.
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Autorzy:
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Palmas S; International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Nairobi, Kenya.
Chamberlin J; International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Nairobi, Kenya.
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Źródło:
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PloS one [PLoS One] 2020 Sep 18; Vol. 15 (9), pp. e0239149. Date of Electronic Publication: 2020 Sep 18 (Print Publication: 2020).
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Typ publikacji:
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Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
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Język:
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English
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Imprint Name(s):
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Original Publication: San Francisco, CA : Public Library of Science
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MeSH Terms:
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Models, Economic*
Crop Production/*economics
Fertilizers/*economics
Investments/*economics
Zea mays/*growth & development
Crop Production/methods ; Farms/economics ; Farms/statistics & numerical data ; Forecasting/methods ; Rain ; Spatial Analysis ; Stochastic Processes ; Tanzania ; Uncertainty
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References:
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Agric Syst. 2020 Apr;180:102790. (PMID: 32255892)
PLoS One. 2015 Jun 25;10(6):e0125814. (PMID: 26110833)
Nutr Cycl Agroecosyst. 2019;113(1):1-19. (PMID: 32684797)
Food Policy. 2017 Feb;67:41-51. (PMID: 28413245)
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2016 Dec 27;113(52):14964-14969. (PMID: 27956604)
Sci Data. 2017 May 23;4:170063. (PMID: 28534868)
Food Policy. 2017 Feb;67:12-25. (PMID: 28413243)
PLoS One. 2020 Jan 14;15(1):e0227764. (PMID: 31935246)
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Substance Nomenclature:
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0 (Fertilizers)
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Entry Date(s):
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Date Created: 20200918 Date Completed: 20201103 Latest Revision: 20201103
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Update Code:
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20240104
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PubMed Central ID:
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PMC7500610
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DOI:
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10.1371/journal.pone.0239149
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PMID:
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32946511
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We present an easily calibrated spatial modeling framework for estimating location-specific fertilizer responses, using smallholder maize farming in Tanzania as a case study. By incorporating spatially varying input and output prices, we predict the expected profitability for a location-specific smallholder farmer. A stochastic rainfall component of the model allows us to quantify the uncertainty around expected economic returns. The resulting mapped estimates of expected profitability and uncertainty are good predictors of actual smallholder fertilizer usage in nationally representative household survey data. The integration of agronomic and economic information in our framework makes it a powerful tool for spatially explicit targeting of agricultural technologies and complementary investments, as well as estimating returns to investments at multiple scales.
Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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