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Tytuł:
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Preliminary estimation of temporal and spatiotemporal dynamic measures of COVID-19 transmission in Thailand.
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Autorzy:
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Rotejanaprasert C; Department of Tropical Hygiene, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand.; Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand.
Lawpoolsri S; Department of Tropical Hygiene, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand.; Center of Excellence for Biomedical and Public Health Informatics (BIOPHICS), Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand.
Pan-Ngum W; Department of Tropical Hygiene, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand.; Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand.
Maude RJ; Department of Tropical Hygiene, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand.; Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States of America.; Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.; The Open University, Milton Keynes, United Kingdom.
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Źródło:
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PloS one [PLoS One] 2020 Sep 24; Vol. 15 (9), pp. e0239645. Date of Electronic Publication: 2020 Sep 24 (Print Publication: 2020).
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Typ publikacji:
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Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
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Język:
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English
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Imprint Name(s):
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Original Publication: San Francisco, CA : Public Library of Science
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MeSH Terms:
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Spatio-Temporal Analysis*
Coronavirus Infections/*transmission
Pneumonia, Viral/*transmission
Basic Reproduction Number ; Betacoronavirus ; COVID-19 ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Pandemics ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Thailand/epidemiology
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Grant Information:
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United Kingdom WT_ Wellcome Trust; 106698/Z/14/Z United Kingdom WT_ Wellcome Trust
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Entry Date(s):
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Date Created: 20200924 Date Completed: 20201005 Latest Revision: 20240206
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Update Code:
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20240206
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PubMed Central ID:
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PMC7514043
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DOI:
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10.1371/journal.pone.0239645
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PMID:
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32970773
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Background: As a new emerging infectious disease pandemic, there is an urgent need to understand the dynamics of COVID-19 in each country to inform planning of emergency measures to contain its spread. It is essential that appropriate disease control activities are planned and implemented in a timely manner. Thailand was one of the first countries outside China to be affected with subsequent importation and domestic spread in most provinces in the country.
Method: A key ingredient to guide planning and implementation of public health measures is a metric of transmissibility which represents the infectiousness of a disease. Ongoing policies can utilize this information to plan appropriately with updated estimates of disease transmissibility. Therefore we present descriptive analyses and preliminary statistical estimation of reproduction numbers over time and space to facilitate disease control activities in Thailand.
Results: The estimated basic reproduction number for COVID-19 during the study ranged from 2.23-5.90, with a mean of 3.75. We also tracked disease dynamics over time using temporal and spatiotemporal reproduction numbers. The results suggest that the outbreak was under control since the middle of April. After the boxing stadium and entertainment venues, the numbers of new cases had increased and spread across the country.
Discussion: Although various scenarios about assumptions were explored in this study, the real situation was difficult to determine given the limited data. More thorough mathematical modelling would be helpful to improve the estimation of transmissibility metrics for emergency preparedness as more epidemiological and clinical information about this new infection becomes available. However, the results can be used to guide interventions directly and to help parameterize models to predict the impact of these interventions.
Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
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