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Tytuł pozycji:

Impact of weather on COVID-19 transmission in south Asian countries: An application of the ARIMAX model.

Tytuł:
Impact of weather on COVID-19 transmission in south Asian countries: An application of the ARIMAX model.
Autorzy:
Hossain MS; Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science & Technology, Sylhet 3114, Bangladesh. Electronic address: .
Ahmed S; Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science & Technology, Sylhet 3114, Bangladesh. Electronic address: .
Uddin MJ; Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science & Technology, Sylhet 3114, Bangladesh. Electronic address: .
Źródło:
The Science of the total environment [Sci Total Environ] 2021 Mar 20; Vol. 761, pp. 143315. Date of Electronic Publication: 2020 Nov 02.
Typ publikacji:
Journal Article
Język:
English
Imprint Name(s):
Original Publication: Amsterdam, Elsevier.
MeSH Terms:
COVID-19*
Afghanistan ; Bangladesh ; Humans ; India ; Pakistan ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Sri Lanka/epidemiology ; Weather
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Contributed Indexing:
Keywords: Air pollutants (maximum PM 2.5); COVID-19; Maximum wind speed; Rainfall; South Asia; Temperature
Entry Date(s):
Date Created: 20201109 Date Completed: 20210122 Latest Revision: 20211214
Update Code:
20240105
PubMed Central ID:
PMC7605795
DOI:
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143315
PMID:
33162141
Czasopismo naukowe
We aimed to examine the impact of weather on COVID-19 confirmed cases in South Asian countries, namely, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Data on daily confirmed cases, together with weather parameters, were collected from the first day of COVID confirmed cases in each country to 31 August 2020. The weather parameters were Rainfall (mm), relative humidity (%), maximum and minimum temperature (°C), surface pressure (kPa), maximum air pollutants matter PM 2.5 (μg/m 3 ) and maximum wind speed (m/s). Data were analyzed for each investigated countries separately by using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Explanatory Variables (ARIMAX) model. We found that maximum wind speed had significant negative impact on COVID-19 transmission in India (-209.45, 95% confidence interval (CI): -369.13, -49.77) and Sri Lanka (-2.77, 95% CI: -4.77, -0.77). Apart from India, temperature had mixed effects (i.e., positive or negative) in four countries in South Asia. For example, maximum temperature had negative impact (-30.52, 95% CI: -60.24, -0.78) in Bangladesh and positive impact (5.10, 95% CI: 0.06, 10.14) in Afghanistan. Whereas rainfall had negative effects (-48.64, 95% CI: -80.17, -17.09) in India and mixed effects in Pakistan. Besides, maximum air pollutants matter PM 2.5 was negatively associated with the confirmed cases of COVID-19. In conclusion, maximum wind speed, rainfall, air pollutants (maximum PM 2.5) and temperature are four variables that could play a vital role in the transmission of COVID-19. Although there is a mixed conclusion regarding weather parameters and COVID-19 transmission, we recommend developing environmental policies regarding the transmission of COVID-19 in South Asian countries.
Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: There are no financial, personal, political, academic, or other relations that could lead to a conflict of interest.
(Copyright © 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

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