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Tytuł pozycji:

COVID-19 case fatality risk by age and gender in a high testing setting in Latin America: Chile, March-August 2020.

Tytuł:
COVID-19 case fatality risk by age and gender in a high testing setting in Latin America: Chile, March-August 2020.
Autorzy:
Undurraga EA; Escuela de Gobierno, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Macul, CP 7820436, Santiago, Región Metropolitana, Chile. .; Millennium Initiative for Collaborative Research in Bacterial Resistance (MICROB-R), Santiago, Chile. .
Chowell G; Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Mizumoto K; Graduate School of Advanced Integrated Studies in Human Survivability, Kyoto University Yoshida-Nakaadachi-Cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, Japan.; Hakubi Center for Advanced Research, Kyoto University, Yoshidahonmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, Japan.
Źródło:
Infectious diseases of poverty [Infect Dis Poverty] 2021 Feb 03; Vol. 10 (1), pp. 11. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Feb 03.
Typ publikacji:
Journal Article
Język:
English
Imprint Name(s):
Original Publication: London : BioMed Central, 2012-
MeSH Terms:
SARS-CoV-2*
COVID-19/*mortality
Adolescent ; Adult ; Age Distribution ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Chile/epidemiology ; Female ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Risk ; Sex Distribution ; Young Adult
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Grant Information:
20H03940 Japan Society for the Promotion of Science; Leading Initiative for Excellent Young Researchers Ministry of Education, Culture, Sport, Science & Technology of Japan; 1414374 National Science Foundation; BB/M008894/1 United Kingdom BB_ Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council; NCN17_081 ANID Millennium Science Initiative
Contributed Indexing:
Keywords: COVID-19; Chile; Death risk by age group; Latin America; Time-delay adjusted case fatality rate
Entry Date(s):
Date Created: 20210203 Date Completed: 20210208 Latest Revision: 20230919
Update Code:
20240104
PubMed Central ID:
PMC7854021
DOI:
10.1186/s40249-020-00785-1
PMID:
33531085
Czasopismo naukowe
Background: Early severity estimates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are critically needed to assess the potential impact of the ongoing pandemic in different demographic groups. Here we estimate the real-time delay-adjusted case fatality rate across nine age groups by gender in Chile, the country with the highest testing rate for COVID-19 in Latin America.
Methods: We used a publicly available real-time daily series of age-stratified COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by the Ministry of Health in Chile from the beginning of the epidemic in March through August 31, 2020. We used a robust likelihood function and a delay distribution to estimate real-time delay-adjusted case-fatality risk and estimate model parameters using a Monte Carlo Markov Chain in a Bayesian framework.
Results: As of August 31, 2020, our estimates of the time-delay adjusted case fatality rate (CFR) for men and women are 4.16% [95% Credible Interval (CrI): 4.09-4.24%] and 3.26% (95% CrI: 3.19-3.34%), respectively, while the overall estimate is 3.72% (95% CrI: 3.67-3.78%). Seniors aged 80 years and over have an adjusted CFR of 56.82% (95% CrI: 55.25-58.34%) for men and 41.10% (95% CrI: 40.02-42.26%) for women. Results showed a peak in estimated CFR during the June peak of the epidemic. The peak possibly reflects insufficient laboratory capacity, as illustrated by high test positivity rates (33% positive 7-day average nationally in June), which may have resulted in lower reporting rates.
Conclusions: Severity estimates from COVID-19 in Chile suggest that male seniors, especially among those aged ≥ 70 years, are being disproportionately affected by the pandemic, a finding consistent with other regions. The ongoing pandemic is imposing a high death toll in South America, and Chile has one of the highest reported mortality rates globally thus far. These real-time estimates may help inform public health officials' decisions in the region and underscore the need to implement more effective measures to ameliorate fatality.
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