Temporal bias in case-control design: preventing reliable predictions of the future.

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Tytuł:: Temporal bias in case-control design: preventing reliable predictions of the future.
Autorzy:: Yuan W; Department of Biomedical Informatics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA. william_.
Beaulieu-Jones BK; Department of Biomedical Informatics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
Yu KH; Department of Biomedical Informatics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
Lipnick SL; Department of Biomedical Informatics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.; Department of Stem Cell and Regenerative Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.; Center for Assessment Technology and Continuous Health, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.
Palmer N; Department of Biomedical Informatics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
Loscalzo J; Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.
Cai T; Department of Biomedical Informatics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.; Division of Data Sciences, VA Boston Healthcare System, Boston, MA, USA.; Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Kohane IS; Department of Biomedical Informatics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA. isaac_.
Źródło:: Nature communications [Nat Commun] 2021 Feb 17; Vol. 12 (1), pp. 1107. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Feb 17.
Typ publikacji:: Journal Article; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Język:: English
Imprint Name(s):: Original Publication: [London] : Nature Pub. Group
MeSH Terms:: Patient Selection*
Biomedical Research/*standards
Clinical Trials as Topic/*standards
Research Design/*standards
Bias ; Biomedical Research/methods ; Biomedical Research/trends ; Case-Control Studies ; Clinical Trials as Topic/methods ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Reproducibility of Results
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Grant Information:: K99 NS114850 United States NS NINDS NIH HHS; T32 HD040128 United States HD NICHD NIH HHS
Entry Date(s):: Date Created: 20210218 Date Completed: 20210301 Latest Revision: 20240330
Update Code:: 20240330
PubMed Central ID:: PMC7889612
DOI:: 10.1038/s41467-021-21390-2
PMID:: 33597541
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One of the primary tools that researchers use to predict risk is the case-control study. We identify a flaw, temporal bias, that is specific to and uniquely associated with these studies that occurs when the study period is not representative of the data that clinicians have during the diagnostic process. Temporal bias acts to undermine the validity of predictions by over-emphasizing features close to the outcome of interest. We examine the impact of temporal bias across the medical literature, and highlight examples of exaggerated effect sizes, false-negative predictions, and replication failure. Given the ubiquity and practical advantages of case-control studies, we discuss strategies for estimating the influence of and preventing temporal bias where it exists.

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