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Tytuł:
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Point estimates, Simpson's paradox, and nonergodicity in biological sciences.
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Autorzy:
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Mangalam M; Department of Physical Therapy, Movement and Rehabilitation Sciences, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA. Electronic address: .
Kelty-Stephen DG; Department of Psychology, Grinnell College, Grinnell, IA, USA. Electronic address: .
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Źródło:
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Neuroscience and biobehavioral reviews [Neurosci Biobehav Rev] 2021 Jun; Vol. 125, pp. 98-107. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Feb 20.
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Typ publikacji:
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Journal Article; Review
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Język:
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English
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Imprint Name(s):
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Publication: New York Ny : Pergamon Press
Original Publication: Fayetteville, N. Y., ANKHO International Inc.
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MeSH Terms:
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Biological Science Disciplines*
Humans
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Contributed Indexing:
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Keywords: Ergodic; Longitudinal modeling; Nonergodic; Stationarity; Statistical analysis; Vector autoregression
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Entry Date(s):
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Date Created: 20210223 Date Completed: 20210628 Latest Revision: 20210628
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Update Code:
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20240105
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DOI:
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10.1016/j.neubiorev.2021.02.017
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PMID:
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33621638
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Modern biomedical, behavioral and psychological inference about cause-effect relationships respects an ergodic assumption, that is, that mean response of representative samples allow predictions about individual members of those samples. Recent empirical evidence in all of the same fields indicates systematic violations of the ergodic assumption. Indeed, violation of ergodicity in biomedical, behavioral and psychological causes is precisely the inspiration behind our research inquiry. Here, we review the long term costs to scientific progress in these domains and a practical way forward. Specifically, we advocate using statistical measures that can themselves encode the degree and type of nonergodicity in measurements. Taking such steps will lead to a paradigm shift, allowing researchers to investigate the nonstationary, far-from-equilibrium processes that characterize the creativity and emergence of biological and psychological behavior.
(Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)