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Tytuł:
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Decision making dyads and judgement overconfidence: Implications for high-risk industries.
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Autorzy:
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Gilbey A; School of Aviation, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand. Electronic address: .
Walmsley S; Waikato Institute of Technology, Hamilton, New Zealand.
Tani K; Universal College of Learning, Palmerston North, New Zealand.
Reweti S; School of Aviation, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand.
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Źródło:
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Applied ergonomics [Appl Ergon] 2021 Nov; Vol. 97, pp. 103529. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Jul 15.
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Typ publikacji:
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Journal Article
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Język:
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English
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Imprint Name(s):
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Publication: Oxford : Butterworth-Heinemann
Original Publication: London.
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MeSH Terms:
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Decision Making*
Judgment*
Humans
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Contributed Indexing:
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Keywords: Aviation; Decision quality; Group polarisation; Overconfidence; Safety
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Entry Date(s):
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Date Created: 20210717 Date Completed: 20210824 Latest Revision: 20210824
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Update Code:
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20240105
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DOI:
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10.1016/j.apergo.2021.103529
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PMID:
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34273815
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In the workplace, overconfidence is generally considered undesirable as it may increase people's propensity to take risks. In many areas (e.g., aviation, shipping, nuclear control, and driving), risk-taking is detrimental to safety. We hypothesised that decision-makers would be overconfident and, due to group polarisation, decision-making pairs would be more overconfident than single decision-makers. As was predicted, when answering a 24-item general knowledge questionnaire (d = 0.94) and a task exploring how they might reorient themselves if lost (d = 1.93), participants (N = 63) were overconfident about their performance; importantly, participants in pairs (n = 32) were more overconfident on general knowledge (Hedges' g = 0.51) and lost procedures (Hedges' g = 0.52), than were participants who completed the tasks alone (n = 31). The findings imply that in some situations, single decision-makers may exhibit less overconfidence. The safety implications for a number of areas are discussed.
(Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)
