Critical transitions and ecological resilience of large marine ecosystems in the Northwestern Pacific in response to global warming.

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Tytuł:: Critical transitions and ecological resilience of large marine ecosystems in the Northwestern Pacific in response to global warming.
Autorzy:: Ma S; Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Mariculture, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.
Liu D; Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Mariculture, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.
Tian Y; Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Mariculture, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.; Laboratory for Marine Fisheries Science and Food Production Processes, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao), Qingdao, China.
Fu C; Pacific Biological Station, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Nanaimo, Canada.
Li J; Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Mariculture, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.
Ju P; Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Mariculture, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.
Sun P; Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Mariculture, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.
Ye Z; Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Mariculture, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.
Liu Y; Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Mariculture, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.; Laboratory for Marine Fisheries Science and Food Production Processes, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao), Qingdao, China.
Watanabe Y; Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Mariculture, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.; Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Chiba, Japan.
Źródło:: Global change biology [Glob Chang Biol] 2021 Oct; Vol. 27 (20), pp. 5310-5328. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Aug 08.
Typ publikacji:: Journal Article
Język:: English
Imprint Name(s):: Publication: : Oxford : Blackwell Pub.
Original Publication: Oxford, UK : Blackwell Science, 1995-
MeSH Terms:: Ecosystem*
Global Warming*
Biodiversity ; Fisheries ; Temperature
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Grant Information:: 41861134037 National Natural Science Foundation of China; 41876177 National Natural Science Foundation of China; 41930534 National Natural Science Foundation of China; 2018YFD0900902 National Key R&D Program of China
Contributed Indexing:: Keywords: Northwestern Pacific; critical transition; ecological resilience; integrated resilience assessment; large marine ecosystem; warming
Entry Date(s):: Date Created: 20210726 Date Completed: 20211020 Latest Revision: 20211020
Update Code:: 20240105
DOI:: 10.1111/gcb.15815
PMID:: 34309964
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Natural systems can undergo critical transitions, leading to substantial socioeconomic and ecological outcomes. "Ecological resilience" has been proposed to describe the capacity of natural systems to absorb external perturbation and reorganize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks. However, the mere application of ecological resilience in theoretical research and the lack of quantitative approaches present considerable obstacles for predicting critical transitions and understanding their mechanisms. Large marine ecosystems (LMEs) in the Northwestern Pacific are characterized by great biodiversity and productivity, as well as remarkable warming in recent decades. However, no information is available on the critical transitions and ecological resilience of LMEs in response to warming. Therefore, we applied an integrated resilience assessment framework to fisheries catch data from seven LMEs covering a wide range of regions, from tropical to subarctic, in the Northwestern Pacific to identify critical transitions, assess ecological resilience, and reconstruct folded stability landscapes, with a specific focus on the effects of warming. The results provide evidence of the occurrence of critical transitions, with fold bifurcation and hysteresis in response to increasing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the seven LMEs. In addition, these LMEs show similarities and synchronies in structure variations and critical transitions forced by warming. Both dramatic increases in SST and small fluctuations at the corresponding thresholds may trigger critical transitions. Ecological resilience decreases when approaching the tipping points and is repainted as the LMEs shift to alternative stable states with different resilient dynamics. Folded stability landscapes indicate that the responses of LMEs to warming are discontinuous, which may be caused by the reorganization of LMEs as their sensitivity to warming changes. Our study clarifies the nonlinear responses of LMEs to anthropogenic warming and provides examples of quantifying ecological resilience in empirical systems at unprecedented spatial and temporal scales.
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