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Tytuł:
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Understanding human vulnerability to climate change: A global perspective on index validation for adaptation planning.
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Autorzy:
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Birkmann J; Institute of Spatial and Regional Planning (IREUS), Pfaffenwaldring 7, 70569, University of Stuttgart, Germany. Electronic address: .
Jamshed A; Institute of Spatial and Regional Planning (IREUS), Pfaffenwaldring 7, 70569, University of Stuttgart, Germany. Electronic address: .
McMillan JM; Institute of Spatial and Regional Planning (IREUS), Pfaffenwaldring 7, 70569, University of Stuttgart, Germany. Electronic address: .
Feldmeyer D; Institute of Spatial and Regional Planning (IREUS), Pfaffenwaldring 7, 70569, University of Stuttgart, Germany. Electronic address: .
Totin E; Ecole de Foresterie Tropicale, Université Nationale d'Agriculture du Benin, Kétou, Benin. Electronic address: .
Solecki W; City University New York (CUNY), Hunter College, 695 Park Avenue, New York, United States of America. Electronic address: .
Ibrahim ZZ; Faculty of Forestry and Environment, Department of Environmental Management, University Putra Malaysia, Serdang, Malaysia. Electronic address: .
Roberts D; School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal and eThekwini Municipality, Sustainable and Resilient City Initiatives Unit, Durban, South Africa. Electronic address: .
Kerr RB; Department of Global Development, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States of America. Electronic address: .
Poertner HO; Alfred-Wegener-Institute, Bremen, Germany. Electronic address: .
Pelling M; King's Centre for Integrated Research on Risk and Resilience, Department of Geography, King's College London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: .
Djalante R; United Nations University - Institute for the Advanced Study of Sustainability (UNU-IAS), Tokyo, Japan. Electronic address: .
Garschagen M; Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich (LMU), Munich, Germany. Electronic address: .
Leal Filho W; Department of Natural Sciences, Manchester Metropolitan University. Oxford Road, Manchester M15 6BH, UK and Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, Research and Transfer Centre 'Sustainable Development and Climate Change Management', Ulmenliet 20, D-21033 Hamburg, Germany. Electronic address: .
Guha-Sapir D; Centre for Research On the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), Institute of Health and Society (IRSS), Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium. Electronic address: .
Alegría A; IPCC Technical Support Unit, Alfred-Wegener-Institute, Bremen, Germany. Electronic address: .
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Źródło:
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The Science of the total environment [Sci Total Environ] 2022 Jan 10; Vol. 803, pp. 150065. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Sep 01.
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Typ publikacji:
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Journal Article; Review
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Język:
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English
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Imprint Name(s):
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Original Publication: Amsterdam, Elsevier.
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MeSH Terms:
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Climate Change*
Disasters*
Adaptation, Physiological ; Floods ; Humans ; Sea Level Rise
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Contributed Indexing:
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Keywords: Climate change; Natural hazards; Societal impacts; Validity and applicability of indicators; Vulnerability
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Entry Date(s):
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Date Created: 20210916 Date Completed: 20211117 Latest Revision: 20211117
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Update Code:
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20240105
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DOI:
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10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150065
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PMID:
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34525713
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Climate change is a severe global threat. Research on climate change and vulnerability to natural hazards has made significant progress over the last decades. Most of the research has been devoted to improving the quality of climate information and hazard data, including exposure to specific phenomena, such as flooding or sea-level rise. Less attention has been given to the assessment of vulnerability and embedded social, economic and historical conditions that foster vulnerability of societies. A number of global vulnerability assessments based on indicators have been developed over the past years. Yet an essential question remains how to validate those assessments at the global scale. This paper examines different options to validate global vulnerability assessments in terms of their internal and external validity, focusing on two global vulnerability indicator systems used in the WorldRiskIndex and the INFORM index. The paper reviews these global index systems as best practices and at the same time presents new analysis and global results that show linkages between the level of vulnerability and disaster outcomes. Both the review and new analysis support each other and help to communicate the validity and the uncertainty of vulnerability assessments. Next to statistical validation methods, we discuss the importance of the appropriate link between indicators, data and the indicandum. We found that mortality per hazard event from floods, drought and storms is 15 times higher for countries ranked as highly vulnerable compared to those classified as low vulnerable. These findings highlight the different starting points of countries in their move towards climate resilient development. Priority should be given not just to those regions that are likely to face more severe climate hazards in the future but also to those confronted with high vulnerability already.
Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
(Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)
