Is there a link between all-cause mortality and economic fluctuations?

Tytuł:: Is there a link between all-cause mortality and economic fluctuations?
Autorzy:: Dadgar I; Swedish Institute for Social Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
Norström T; Swedish Institute for Social Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
Źródło:: Scandinavian journal of public health [Scand J Public Health] 2022 Feb; Vol. 50 (1), pp. 6-15. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Oct 20.
Typ publikacji:: Journal Article
Język:: English
Imprint Name(s):: Publication: <2008->: London, England : Sage Publications
Original Publication: Stockholm ; Boston : Scandinavian University Press, c1999-
MeSH Terms:: Mortality*/trends
Unemployment*
Humans ; Economic Recession
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Contributed Indexing:: Keywords: GDP; all-cause mortality; error correction model; unemployment. Great Recession
Entry Date(s):: Date Created: 20211020 Date Completed: 20220202 Latest Revision: 20240405
Update Code:: 20240405
PubMed Central ID:: PMC8808227
DOI:: 10.1177/14034948211049979
PMID:: 34666579
: Czasopismo naukowe

Background: All-cause mortality is a global indicator of the overall health of the population, and its relation to the macro economy is thus of vital interest. The main aim was to estimate the short-term and the long-term impact of macroeconomic change on all-cause mortality. Variations in the unemployment rate were used as indicator of temporary fluctuations in the economy. Methods: We used time-series data for 21 OECD countries spanning the period 1960-2018. We used four outcomes: total mortality (0+), infant mortality (<1), mortality in the age-group 20-64, and old-age mortality (65+). Data on GDP/capita were obtained from the Maddison Project. Unemployment data (% unemployed in the work force) were sourced from Eurostat. We applied error correction modelling to estimate the short-term and the long-term impact of macroeconomic change on all-cause mortality. Results: We found that increases in unemployment were statistically significantly associated with decreases in all mortality outcomes except old-age mortality. Increases in GDP were associated with significant lowering long-term effects on mortality. Conclusions: Our findings, based on data from predominantly affluent countries, suggest that an increase in unemployment leads to a decrease in all-cause mortality. However, economic growth, as indicated by increased GDP, has a long-term protective health impact as indexed by lowered mortality.

Comment in: Scand J Public Health. 2022 Feb;50(1):4-5. (PMID: 34689636)

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