A time-series prediction model of acute myocardial infarction in northern of Iran: the risk of climate change and religious mourning.

Tytuł:: A time-series prediction model of acute myocardial infarction in northern of Iran: the risk of climate change and religious mourning.
Autorzy:: Sharif Nia H; Cardiovascular Research Center, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran.
Gorgulu O; Department of Biostatistics and Medical Informatics, Faculty of Medicine, Ahi Evran University, Kırşehir, Turkey.
Naghavi N; Faculty of Business and Law, Taylor's University, Subang Jaya, Selangor, Malaysia.
Froelicher ES; Department of Physiological Nursing, School of Nursing, University of California Sand Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medicine, University of California Sand Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Fomani FK; School of Nursing and Midwifery, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran. .
Goudarzian AH; Student Research Committee, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran.
Sharif SP; Faculty of Business and Law, Taylor's University Malaysia, Subang Jaya, Malaysia.
Pourkia R; Department of Cardiology, Cardiovascular Research Center, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Babol, Iran.
Haghdoost AA; Research Center for Modeling in Health, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
Źródło:: BMC cardiovascular disorders [BMC Cardiovasc Disord] 2021 Nov 23; Vol. 21 (1), pp. 563. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Nov 23.
Typ publikacji:: Journal Article
Język:: English
Imprint Name(s):: Original Publication: London : BioMed Central, [2001-
MeSH Terms:: Climate Change*
Grief*
Islam*
Weather*
Myocardial Infarction/*epidemiology
Attitude to Death ; Humans ; Incidence ; Iran/epidemiology ; Myocardial Infarction/diagnosis ; Rain ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors ; Sunlight ; Temperature ; Time Factors
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Contributed Indexing:: Keywords: Acute myocardial infarction; Iran; Time series; Weather
Entry Date(s):: Date Created: 20211124 Date Completed: 20220117 Latest Revision: 20240407
Update Code:: 20240407
PubMed Central ID:: PMC8609867
DOI:: 10.1186/s12872-021-02372-0
PMID:: 34814834
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Background: Although various studies have been conducted on the effects of seasonal climate changes or emotional variables on the risk of AMI, many of them have limitations to determine the predictable model. The currents study is conducted to assess the effects of meteorological and emotional variables on the incidence and epidemiological occurrence of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in Sari (capital of Mazandaran, Iran) during 2011-2018.
Methods: In this study, a time series analysis was used to determine the variation of variables over time. All series were seasonally adjusted and Poisson regression analysis was performed. In the analysis of meteorological data and emotional distress due to religious mourning events, the best results were obtained by autoregressive moving average (ARMA) (5,5) model.
Results: It was determined that average temperature, sunshine, and rain variables had a significant effect on death. A total of 2375 AMI's were enrolled. Average temperate (°C) and sunshine hours a day (h/day) had a statistically significant relationship with the number of AMI's (β = 0.011, P = 0.014). For every extra degree of temperature increase, the risk of AMI rose [OR = 1.011 (95%CI 1.00, 1.02)]. For every extra hour of sunshine, a day a statistically significant increase [OR = 1.02 (95% CI 1.01, 1.04)] in AMI risk occurred (β = 0.025, P = 0.001). Religious mourning events increase the risk of AMI 1.05 times more. The other independent variables have no significant effects on AMI's (P > 0.05).
Conclusion: Results demonstrate that sunshine hours and the average temperature had a significant effect on the risk of AMI. Moreover, emotional distress due to religious morning events increases AMI. More specific research on this topic is recommended.
(© 2021. The Author(s).)

Erratum in: BMC Cardiovasc Disord. 2022 May 26;22(1):243. (PMID: 35619079)

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