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Tytuł:
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Projections of future temperature-related cardiovascular mortality under climate change, urbanization and population aging in Beijing, China.
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Autorzy:
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Xing Q; Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China; Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100089, China.
Sun Z; Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100089, China; Joint International Research Laboratory of Atmospheric and Earth System Sciences, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China. Electronic address: .
Tao Y; Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China. Electronic address: .
Shang J; Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100089, China.
Miao S; Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100089, China.
Xiao C; National Climate Center, China Meteorology Administration, Beijing 100081, China.
Zheng C; Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
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Źródło:
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Environment international [Environ Int] 2022 May; Vol. 163, pp. 107231. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Apr 09.
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Typ publikacji:
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Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
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Język:
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English
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Imprint Name(s):
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Publication: : Amsterdam : Elsevier Science
Original Publication: Oxford; Elmsford, N. Y., Pergamon Press.
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MeSH Terms:
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Cardiovascular Diseases*
Climate Change*
Aged ; Aging ; Beijing ; China/epidemiology ; Hot Temperature ; Humans ; Mortality ; Temperature ; Urbanization
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Contributed Indexing:
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Keywords: Ageing; Cardiovascular disease; Climate change; Urbanization
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Entry Date(s):
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Date Created: 20220418 Date Completed: 20220426 Latest Revision: 20220624
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Update Code:
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20240104
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DOI:
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10.1016/j.envint.2022.107231
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PMID:
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35436720
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Climate change is causing the surface temperature to rise and the extreme weather events to increase in frequency and intensity, which will pose potential threats to the survival and health of residents. Beijing is facing multiple challenges such as coping with climate change, urbanization, and population aging, which puts huge decision-making pressure on decision maker. However, few studies that systematically consider the health effects of climate change, urbanization, and population aging for China. Based on the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and 13 global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), this study obtained the temporal and spatial distribution of surface temperature through statistical downscaling methods, and comprehensively explored the independent and comprehensive effects of urbanization and population aging on the projection of future temperature-related cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in the context of climate and population change. The results showed that only improving urbanization can reduce future temperature-related CVD mortality by 1.7-18.3%, and only intensified aging can increase future temperature-related CVD mortality by 48.8-325.9%. Taking into account the improving urbanization and intensified aging, future temperature-related CVD mortality would increase by 44.1-256.6%, and the increase was slightly lower than that of only intensified aging. Therefore, the intensified aging was the biggest disadvantage in tackling climate change, which would obviously magnify the mortality risks of temperature-related CVD in the future. Although the advancement of urbanization would alleviate the adverse effects of the intensified aging population, the mitigation effects would be limited. Even so, Urbanization should be continued to reduce health risks for residents. These findings would contribute to formulate policies related to mitigate climate change and reduce baseline mortality rate (especially the elderly) in international mega-city - Beijing. In addition, relevant departments should improve the medical health care level and optimize the allocation of social resources to better cope with and adapt to climate change.
(Copyright © 2022. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)
