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Tytuł:
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Efficacy and effectiveness of case isolation and quarantine during a growing phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in Finland.
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Autorzy:
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Auranen K; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Turku, Vesilinnankatu 5, 20014, Turku, Finland. .; Department of Clinical Medicine, University of Turku, Vesilinnankatu 5, 20014, Turku, Finland. .; Department of Health Security, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Mannerheimintie 166, 00271, Helsinki, Finland. .
Shubin M; Department of Health Security, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Mannerheimintie 166, 00271, Helsinki, Finland.
Erra E; Epidemiological Operations Unit, City of Helsinki, Toinen linja 4 A, P.O. Box 6008, 00530, Helsinki, Finland.
Isosomppi S; Epidemiological Operations Unit, City of Helsinki, Toinen linja 4 A, P.O. Box 6008, 00530, Helsinki, Finland.
Kontto J; Department of Health Security, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Mannerheimintie 166, 00271, Helsinki, Finland.; Epidemiological Operations Unit, City of Helsinki, Toinen linja 4 A, P.O. Box 6008, 00530, Helsinki, Finland.
Leino T; Department of Health Security, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Mannerheimintie 166, 00271, Helsinki, Finland.
Lukkarinen T; Epidemiological Operations Unit, City of Helsinki, Toinen linja 4 A, P.O. Box 6008, 00530, Helsinki, Finland.
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Źródło:
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Scientific reports [Sci Rep] 2023 Jan 06; Vol. 13 (1), pp. 298. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Jan 06.
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Typ publikacji:
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Journal Article
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Język:
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English
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Imprint Name(s):
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Original Publication: London : Nature Publishing Group, copyright 2011-
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MeSH Terms:
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COVID-19*/epidemiology
COVID-19*/prevention & control
Humans ; Quarantine ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Finland/epidemiology ; Contact Tracing
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References:
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Science. 2020 May 8;368(6491):. (PMID: 32234805)
Med Decis Making. 2021 Nov;41(8):1017-1032. (PMID: 34027734)
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Nat Med. 2020 May;26(5):672-675. (PMID: 32296168)
Ann Intern Med. 2020 May 05;172(9):577-582. (PMID: 32150748)
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Entry Date(s):
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Date Created: 20230107 Date Completed: 20230110 Latest Revision: 20230223
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Update Code:
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20240105
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PubMed Central ID:
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PMC9817446
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DOI:
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10.1038/s41598-022-27227-2
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PMID:
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36609431
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Based on data collected as part of the contact tracing activity of the City of Helsinki Epidemiological Operations Unit, we evaluated the efficacy and effectiveness of isolating SARS-CoV-2 cases and quarantining their exposed contacts during a mildly growing phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in Finland in autumn 2020. Based on the observed symptom-to-symptom intervals in 1016 pairs of primary and secondary cases, we estimated that without case isolation or quarantine 40[Formula: see text] (90[Formula: see text] credible interval, CI 25-59) of transmission would have occurred on the day of or after symptom onset. One third of SARS-CoV-2 cases (N = 1521) had initially been quarantined, with a self-reported time until isolation (quarantine) of 0.8 days before symptom onset. This delay translates into an efficacy of 50[Formula: see text] (90[Formula: see text] CI 40-63) of averting secondary infections per quarantined case. Due to later isolation (mean 2.6 days after symptoms), the efficacy was smaller (24[Formula: see text]; 90[Formula: see text] CI 12-41) in those two third of the cases (N = 3101) whose isolation was prompted by their symptoms, i.e. without being previously quarantined. At the population level, we evaluated the effectiveness of case isolation and quarantine on the growth rate of the COVID-19 epidemic in the autumn of 2020. Under a wide range of underlying assumptions, the rate would have been at least 2 times higher without case isolation and quarantine. The numbers needed to isolate or quarantine to prevent one secondary case were 2 and 20, respectively.
(© 2023. The Author(s).)
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