Temporal variation of the temperature-mortality association in Spain: a nationwide analysis.

Tytuł:: Temporal variation of the temperature-mortality association in Spain: a nationwide analysis.
Autorzy:: Ordanovich D; Institute of Economy, Geography y Demography (IEGD), Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Madrid, Spain. .
Tobías A; Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Barcelona, Spain.
Ramiro D; Institute of Economy, Geography y Demography (IEGD), Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Madrid, Spain.
Źródło:: Environmental health : a global access science source [Environ Health] 2023 Jan 13; Vol. 22 (1), pp. 5. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Jan 13.
Typ publikacji:: Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Język:: English
Imprint Name(s):: Original Publication: London : BioMed Central, [2002-
MeSH Terms:: Cold Temperature*
Hot Temperature*
Male ; Humans ; Female ; Temperature ; Spain/epidemiology ; Risk Factors ; Mortality
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Contributed Indexing:: Keywords: Adaptation; Climate change; Distributed lag non-linear models; Temperature; Time-series regression
Entry Date(s):: Date Created: 20230112 Date Completed: 20230116 Latest Revision: 20231123
Update Code:: 20240105
PubMed Central ID:: PMC9838025
DOI:: 10.1186/s12940-022-00957-6
PMID:: 36635705
: Czasopismo naukowe

Pełny tekst

Background: Although adaptation to continuously rising ambient temperatures is an emerging topic and has been widely studied at a global scale, detailed analysis of the joint indicators for long-term adaptation in Spain are scarce. This study aims to explore temporal variations of the minimum mortality temperature and mortality burden from heat and cold between 1979 and 2018.
Methods: We collected individual all-cause mortality and climate reanalysis data for 4 decades at a daily time step. To estimate the temperature-mortality association for each decade, we fitted a quasi-Poisson time-series regression model using a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, controlling for trends and day of the week. We also calculated attributable mortality fractions by age and sex for heat and cold, defined as temperatures above and below the optimum temperature, which corresponds to the minimum mortality in each period.
Results: We analysed over 14 million deaths registered in Spain between 1979 and 2018. The optimum temperature estimated at a nationwide scale declined from 21 °C in 1979-1988 to 16 °C in 1999-2008, and raised to 18 °C in 2009-2018. The mortality burden from moderate cold showed a 3-fold reduction down to 2.4% in 2009-2018. Since 1988-1999, the mortality risk attributable to moderate (extreme) heat reduced from 0.9% (0.8%) to 0.6% (0.5%). The mortality risk due to heat in women was almost 2 times larger than in men, and did not decrease over time.
Conclusion: Despite the progressively warmer temperatures in Spain, we observed a persistent flattening of the exposure-response curves, which marked an expansion of the uncertainty range of the optimal temperatures. Adaptation has been produced to some extent in a non-uniform manner with a substantial decrease in cold-related mortality, while for heat it became more apparent in the most recent decade only.
(© 2023. The Author(s).)

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