Evidences of localized coastal warming near major urban centres along the Indian coastline: past and future trends.

Szczegóły
Abstrakt

Tytuł:: Evidences of localized coastal warming near major urban centres along the Indian coastline: past and future trends.
Autorzy:: Bhattacharjee S; Dept. of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati, Kamrup, Guwahati Assam, 781039, India. .
Lekshmi K; Dept. of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati, Kamrup, Guwahati Assam, 781039, India.
Bharti R; Dept. of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati, Kamrup, Guwahati Assam, 781039, India.
Źródło:: Environmental monitoring and assessment [Environ Monit Assess] 2023 May 19; Vol. 195 (6), pp. 692. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 May 19.
Typ publikacji:: Journal Article
Język:: English
Imprint Name(s):: Publication: 1998- : Dordrecht : Springer
Original Publication: Dordrecht, Holland ; Boston : D. Reidel Pub. Co., c1981-
MeSH Terms:: Ecosystem*
Environmental Monitoring*
Climate ; Temperature ; Atmosphere
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Contributed Indexing:: Keywords: ANN; ARIMA; DWT; Polynomial regression; SST; Urban climate
Entry Date(s):: Date Created: 20230519 Date Completed: 20230522 Latest Revision: 20230522
Update Code:: 20240105
DOI:: 10.1007/s10661-023-11214-9
PMID:: 37204521
: Czasopismo naukowe

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Large-scale urbanization near the coasts is reported to directly impact physical and biogeochemical characteristics of near shore waters, through hydro-meteorological forcing, developing abnormalities such as coastal warming. This study attempts to understand the impact-magnitude of urban expansion on coastal sea surface temperature (SST) rise in the vicinity of six major cities along the Indian coastline. Different parameters such as air temperature (AT), relative humidity (RH), wind speed (WS), precipitation (P), land surface temperature (LST) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) representing the climate over the cities were analysed and AT was found to have highest correlation with increasing coastal SST values, specifically, along the western coast (R 2 > 0.93). Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural network (ANN) models were employed to analyse past (1980-2019) and forecast future (2020-2029) SST trends off all urban coasts. ANN provided comparatively better prediction accuracy with RMSE values ranging from 0.40 to 0.76 K compared to the seasonal ARIMA model (RMSE: 0.60-1 K). Prediction accuracy further improved by coupling ANN with discrete wavelet transformation (DWT) which could reduce the data noise (RMSE: 0.37-0.63 K). The entire study period (1980-2029) revealed significant and consistent increase in SST values (0.5-1 K) along the western coastal cities which varied considerably along the east coast (from north to south), indicating the influence of tropical cyclones combined with increased river influx. Such unnatural interferences in the dynamic land-atmosphere-ocean circulation not only render the coastal ecosystems vulnerable to degradation but also potentially develop a feedback effect which impacts the general climatology of the region.
(© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

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