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Tytuł:
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Numerical Short-Term Solar Activity Forecasting.
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Autorzy:
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Wang, Huaning
Yan, Yihua
He, Han
Huang, Xin
Dai, Xinghua
Zhu, Xiaoshuai
Du, Zhanle
Zhao, Hui
Yan, Yan
Foullon, Claire
Malandraki, Olga E.
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Źródło:
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Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union; Jul2017, Vol. 13 Issue S335, p243-249, 7p
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It is well known that the energy for solar eruptions comes from magnetic fields in solar active regions. Magnetic energy storage and dissipation are regarded as important physical processes in the solar corona. With incomplete theoretical modeling for eruptions in the solar atmosphere, activity forecasting is mainly supported with statistical models. Solar observations with high temporal and spatial resolution continuously from space well describe the evolution of activities in the solar atmosphere, and combined with three dimensional reconstruction of solar magnetic fields, makes numerical short-term (within hours to days) solar activity forecasting possible. In the current report, we propose the erupting frequency and main attack direction of solar eruptions as new forecasts and present the prospects for numerical short-term solar activity forecasting based on the magnetic topological framework in solar active regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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