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Tytuł pozycji:

Visualizing the Influence of Geography, Oil and Geopolitics on Civil Wars in the Arab World: A Novel Application of Self-Organizing Maps and Duration Models.

Tytuł:
Visualizing the Influence of Geography, Oil and Geopolitics on Civil Wars in the Arab World: A Novel Application of Self-Organizing Maps and Duration Models.
Autorzy:
Mostafa, Mohamed M.
Al-Hamdi, Mohaned Talib
Temat:
CIVIL war
GEOPOLITICS
CAUSES of war
SELF-organizing maps
PETROLEUM industry & politics
INSURGENCY
HISTORY of Arab countries
HISTORY
TWENTIETH century
TWENTY-first century
Źródło:
Civil Wars; Jun2014, Vol. 16 Issue 2, p239-254, 16p, 1 Color Photograph, 1 Black and White Photograph, 4 Charts
Czasopismo naukowe
The aim of this paper is to investigate why some internal conflicts are terminated quickly, while others linger for several decades without a looming resolution in the horizon. In an attempt to achieve this objective, the role played by geopolitical factors in the Arab world's internal conflicts was investigated. More specifically, we used Kohonen self-organizing maps, an artificial intelligence-based neural network technique, along with event duration models to investigate the role played by distance from the capital, access to international borders, terrain, valuable natural resources such as oil, and rebels fighting capability in civil wars in the Arab world. Using recently validated data spanning more than 50 years of Arab civil wars (1948–2003), our findings indicate that previously ignored geopolitical factors seem to play an important role in the duration of internal conflicts in the Arab World. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]
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