Forecasting tropical ENSO-induced drought conditions using sea surface height in the Western Pacific

The interannual variability of rainfall caused by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) results in significant changes in hydrologic conditions. Forecasting ENSO and its impacts are mainly based on Central Pacific Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies which satisfactorily correlate with timing and, to a lesser extent, the intensity of drought conditions in the Philippines and the Western Pacific during the El Niño phase. Changes in sea surface height (SSH) are also brought upon by ENSO through seawater density changes with temperature and oceanographic processes. Here, we report that the associative nature of SSH and drought, as measured by surface runoff, has a better correlation (r > 0.693, p