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Tytuł:
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Understanding COVID-19 dynamics and the effects of interventions in the Philippines: A mathematical modelling study
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Autorzy:
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Jamie M. Caldwell, PhD
Elvira de Lara-Tuprio, PhD
Timothy Robin Teng, PhD
Maria Regina Justina E. Estuar, PhD
Raymond Francis R. Sarmiento, MD
Milinda Abayawardana, B.Eng
Robert Neil F. Leong, MS
Richard T. Gray, PhD
James G. Wood, PhD
Linh-Vi Le
Emma S. McBryde, PhD
Romain Ragonnet, PhD
James M. Trauer, PhD
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Temat:
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COVID-19
Philippines
LMIC
SEIR
Minimum Health Standards policy
Public aspects of medicine
RA1-1270
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Źródło:
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The Lancet Regional Health. Western Pacific, Vol 14, Iss , Pp 100211- (2021)
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Wydawca:
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Elsevier, 2021.
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Rok publikacji:
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2021
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Kolekcja:
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LCC:Public aspects of medicine
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Typ dokumentu:
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article
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Opis pliku:
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electronic resource
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Język:
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English
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ISSN:
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2666-6065
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Relacje:
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http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666606521001206; https://doaj.org/toc/2666-6065
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DOI:
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10.1016/j.lanwpc.2021.100211
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Dostęp URL:
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https://doaj.org/article/e3a537eea33e4322a94ef1120208efd0  Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
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Numer akcesji:
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edsdoj.3a537eea33e4322a94ef1120208efd0
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ABSTRACT: Background: COVID-19 initially caused less severe outbreaks in many low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) compared with many high-income countries, possibly because of differing demographics, socioeconomics, surveillance, and policy responses. Here, we investigate the role of multiple factors on COVID-19 dynamics in the Philippines, a LMIC that has had a relatively severe COVID-19 outbreak. Methods: We applied an age-structured compartmental model that incorporated time-varying mobility, testing, and personal protective behaviors (through a “Minimum Health Standards” policy, MHS) to represent the first wave of the Philippines COVID-19 epidemic nationally and for three highly affected regions (Calabarzon, Central Visayas, and the National Capital Region). We estimated effects of control measures, key epidemiological parameters, and interventions. Findings: Population age structure, contact rates, mobility, testing, and MHS were sufficient to explain the Philippines epidemic based on the good fit between modelled and reported cases, hospitalisations, and deaths. The model indicated that MHS reduced the probability of transmission per contact by 13-27%. The February 2021 case detection rate was estimated at ~8%, population recovered at ~9%, and scenario projections indicated high sensitivity to MHS adherence. Interpretation: COVID-19 dynamics in the Philippines are driven by age, contact structure, mobility, and MHS adherence. Continued compliance with low-cost MHS should help the Philippines control the epidemic until vaccines are widely distributed, but disease resurgence may be occurring due to a combination of low population immunity and detection rates and new variants of concern.