Chenglong Zhao,* Yao Wang,* Xiaopan Cai,* Wei Xu,* Dongsheng Wang, Ting Wang, Qi Jia, Haiyi Gong, Haitao Sun, Zhipeng Wu, Jianru Xiao Spine Tumor Center, Department of Orthopedic Oncology, Changzheng Hospital, Navy Medical University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Jianru Xiao; Zhipeng WuSpine Tumor Center, Department of Orthopedic Oncology, Changzheng Hospital, Navy Medical University, No. 415 Fengyang Road, Huangpu District, Shanghai, People’s Republic of ChinaTel +86-21-81886843Fax +86-21-63520020Email cz_xiaojianru@163.com; eaglewzp@163.comBackground: Surgery remains the mainstay of treatment for breast cancer spinal metastasis (BCSM) to relieve symptoms and improve the quality of life of BCSM patients. Therefore, it is important to effectively predict the prognosis of patients to determine whether they can undergo surgical operation. However, the prevalent methods for prognosis evaluation lack specificity and sensitivity for indicated malignancies like breast cancer because they are built on a relatively small number of heterogeneous types of primary tumors. The aim of the present study was to explore a novel predictive model based on the clinical, pathological and blood parameters obtained from BCSM patients before they received surgical intervention.Methods: Altogether, 144 patients were included in this study. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to investigate the significance of preoperative parameters and identify independent factors for prognostic prediction of BCSM. A nomogram for survival prediction was then established and validated. Time-dependent ROC (TDROC) curves were graphed to evaluate the accuracy of the novel model vs other scoring systems including Tomita Score, revised Tokuhashi Score, modified Bauer Score and New England Spinal Metastasis Score. P values < 0.05 were considered statistically significant.Results: Independent factors, including preoperative postmenopausal (P=0.034), visceral metastasIs (P=0.021), preoperative Frankel Score (P=0.001), estrogen receptor status (P=0.014), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (P=0.012), lymphocyte-monocyte ratio (P< 0.001) and albumin-globulin ratio (P=0.017), were selected into the nomogram model with the C-index of 0.834 (95% CI, 0.789– 0.890). TDROC curves showed that the Changzheng Hospital (CZ) Score system had the best performance and exhibited the largest IAUC value in comparison with the other scoring systems.Conclusion: We constructed a nomogram model known as CZ Score based on the significant factors to predict the prognosis for BCSM patients. The result showed that CZ Score had a better value for prognostic evaluation and surgical decision-making as compared with the other scoring systems.Keywords: breast cancer, spine metastases, nomogram, scoring system, prognosis
