Fangda Si,* Shuo Yuan,* Lei Zang, Ning Fan, Qichao Wu, Tianyi Wang, Aobo Wang Department of Orthopedics, Beijing Chaoyang Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100043, People’s Republic of China*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Lei Zang, Department of Orthopedics, Beijing Chaoyang Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100043, People’s Republic of China, Tel +86-13601252787, Email zanglei@ccmu.edu.cnBackground: The paraspinal muscle is essential for maintaining normal spine function and structure, which degeneration is closely related to various spinal diseases. The main objective of this study was to identify the potential role of paraspinal muscle degeneration in the occurrence of new vertebral compression fractures (NVCF) and develop a clinically applicable nomogram for prospective NVCF risk prediction.Methods: A total of 202 patients with single-level osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures (OVCF) who underwent percutaneous kyphoplasty treatment between January 2016 and March 2019 were included in this study. Demographic, clinical, radiological, and treatment data were collected and analyzed. The paraspinal muscle cross-sectional area (CSA) and fat signal fraction (FSF) were measured to quantify the extent of muscle degeneration. Multivariate binary logistic regression analysis was performed to select risk factors to build a nomogram that predicted the occurrence of NVCF. The concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve were used to evaluate the discriminative capacity and predictive accuracy of the nomogram.Results: NVCF occurred in 54 of 202 patients (26.7%). The erector spinae FSF (OR = 1.064; P = 0.001), psoas major FSF (OR = 1.326; P < 0.001), and the difference index of the muscle CSA between multifidus and psoas major (OR = 1.048; P < 0.001) were independent risk factors for the occurrence of NVCF. The nomogram performance was good after evaluation using the calibration curves and C-index (95% confidence interval, 0.854– 0.943).Conclusion: Paraspinal muscle degeneration is a potential risk factor for NVCF occurrence. A nomogram was designed to precisely predict the risk of NVCF. This predictive nomogram may help clinicians to make better clinical decisions and provide more accurate functional exercise protocol for OVCF patients.Keywords: paraspinal muscle degeneration, new vertebral compression fractures, percutaneous kyphoplasty, risk factors, nomogram
