Examination of College Performance by National Merit Scholarship Program Recognition Level. Research Report 2011-10

The current study examined the validity of the selection process used for the National Merit Scholarship Program (NMSP) to identify scholarship winners. Namely, this study examined whether students who advanced to higher NMSP recognition levels (Commended Students, Semifinalists, and various levels of award winners) had higher college performance, as indexed by first-year college grades and second-year retention rates. Based on a sample of nearly 400,000 college students, the results indicated that students who advance to higher NMSP recognition levels did earn higher FYGPAs and were more likely to return for their second year of college. In sum, these findings provide validity evidence in support of the NMSP selection process for identifying students who are most likely to succeed in college and deserving of a National Merit Scholarship.